Tertiary Sources:
1. Wikipedia
2. Encarta 2006
3. Encyclopedia Britannica
4. The quote from the movie was given to me by my sister who saw it and wrote it down
5. Almanac
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
The Power & The Glory, Part III (pg.202-222)
During this final part of the book, one finds out that the priests worst nightmare at the beginning of the book became true. After all his running and hiding he is finally caught. One would think that somewhere along the book the lieutenant could catch up with the priest and capture him, but the way the priest is caught is different to what the reader was expecting from the beginning. After reading this part of the book, one can deduct that the priest is a hero. It could be said that he's a poor role model, because he drinks and does not take his religious position seriously, but as a human being the priest never forgets about his position in life and always tries to do the right thing (even thought he doesn't accomplish it sometimes). His running away from the authorities never stops him from thinking about the people, the priest knows that he can be given in at any moment for the money offered for him, but he stills gives mass and helps people because he knows it's the right thing to do. At the end of the book the priest is completely alone, but after his death is remember by everyone. It's a bit ironic because his life's work is not worth a thing, but the moment he dies he's most probably going to become a saint or a martyr. " 'No need to have fired another shot. The soul of the young hero had already left its earthly mansion, and the happy smile on the dead face told even those ignorant men where they would find Juan now. One of the men there that day was so moved by his bearing that he secretly soaked his handkerchief in the martyr's blood, and that handkerchief, cut into a hundred relics, found its way into many pious homes. And now,' the mother went rapidly on, clapping her hands, 'to bed.' 'And that one,' the boy said, 'they shot today. Was he a hero too?' 'Yes.' (The Power & The Glory, Part IV, Chapter 1, pg. 219)."
This time the book will be connected to the movie City of Angels with Nicolas Cage, Andre Braugher and Meg Ryan. This movie is about an angel called Seth (Nicolas Cage) who falls in love with a human doctor called Maggie Rice (Meg Ryan). These angels which protect the city are always in the library learning new things and being on top of everything. One day while visiting a person who is about to die Seth sees Doctor Rice and falls in love with her, but she can't see him. The angels can never be seen unless they want it to happen. Later on in the film, Seth wants Maggie to see him and when she does he doesn't know how to react because he wasn't expecting this to occur. After this event, Seth starts to 'date' Doctor Rice and when he falls deeply in love with her he decides to give his immortality away so he can be with her. When they finally can be together she gets run over by a car and dies. The event mentioned before concerning Seth's lose of immortality is similar to the priests death. In the book, one can notice that the priest gives his life to what he believes is doing the right thing, which would be going back to the hostile territory and listening to the gringos last words of forgiveness. The priest knew his life would be placed in danger, but he didn't care and went back. This could be taken as the priest trying to stand up against humanities greatest fear which is death. At the end of the book the character's that where first introduced to us (Tench and the mother with her two daughters and son) reappear and are the ones who speak about the priests death. The weird thing is that at the end they talk about a priest or the man introduces himself as a priest, but they never say his name so it makes one think that maybe the priest has not died or been killed. We'll never know for sure.
Monday, October 22, 2007
The Power & The Glory, Part III (pg.183-202)
Reading this book is like being on a roller coaster, it has parts where you don't want to stop reading and other's where you loose interest completely. Up until know the third part has been the most exciting of the whole book, but it could still be a lot better. During this passage of the book, we learn that the priest has gone back to 'enemy territory' so he can reunite with the gringo who has sent him a letter asking the priest to forgive his sins before he dies. At first the 'Yankee' is very rude to the priest telling him to leave, but later we find that he acts this way so the priest doesn't get caught by the lieutenant. "I know what you want to tell me. I know it, do you understand? Let that be. Remember you are dying. Don't depend too much on God's mercy. He has given you this chance. He may not give you another. What sort of a life have you led all these years? Does it seem so grand now? You've killed a lot of people -that's about all. Anybody can do that for a while, and then he is killed too. Just as you are killed. Nothing left except pain (The Power & The Glory, Part III, Chapter 2, pg. 188)." After telling this to the gringo, he decides to tell the priest that he should take care and that their is gun under his arm but it isn't there, so he is given a knife just in case he need a way to protect or defend himself. As soon as the gringo dies, the priest turns around and the lieutenant is standing behind him and asks the priest if he is amazed to see him and the priest responds that no, that he has been expecting him. Since a storm is approaching, the lieutenant orders one of the officers or policeman to bring two boxes inside the hut and a candle so they can sit. Both the priest and the lieutenant begin to talk and the priest is spoken to horribly by the officer. To change the subject the priest takes out a pair of cards that Mr. Lehr gave him and starts showing tricks and games to the lieutenant. After this the scene becomes tense because this man starts accusing the priest of several things done by the church. " 'The trickery.' He broke out furiously with the one hand on his gun, as though it had crossed his mind that it would be better to eliminate this beast, now, at this instant, for ever (The Power & The Glory, Part III, Chapter 2, pg. 193)." Later on the storm leaves the area and the priest is taken by the lieutenant, most probably to jail while they wait for his 'trial.'
To connect this part of the book, I decided to take the part where the priest finds himself with his prosecutor (the lieutenant) inside the hut. "A VOICE said, 'Well, have you finished now?' The priest got up and made a small scared gesture of assent. He recognized the police officer who had given him money at the prison, a dark smart figure in the doorway with the storm light glinting in his leggings. He had one hand on his revolver and he frowned sourly in at the dead gunman. 'You didn't expect to see me,' he said. 'Oh, but I did,' the priest said (The Power & The Glory, Part III, Chapter 3, pg. 190)." The relation I'm going to make is with a book I once read called All Quiet on the Western Front by Erich Maria Remarque. This book takes place in Germany during the First World War. It's a about a bunch of friends who decided to fight in the German army because it sounds like 'fun.' The story shows how the main character Paul Bäumer goes through change and sees the reality of the war, pure horror. He engages himself into a new fight which will be against hate. There is a passage in this book where Paul describes being inside an abandoned house alone and how the enemy comes in and starts looking for survivors, but he hides and is not caught. This tense moment is also shared by the priest, so that is why they can be closely related. "-Terror can be endured so long as a man simply ducks; -but it kills, if a man thinks about it (All Quiet on the Western Front, Chapter 7, pg. 138)."
Up until know we know that the priest has been caught, we don't know if his going to be killed (although it seems like it) or sent to jail. The mestizo is a bad character because while the priest is pardoning the gringo's sins he gets lost and most probably he does so to tell the lieutenant and get the reward.
- Is the priest going to be judged and killed?
- Where did the mestizo go?
- Why does the lieutenant hate the church so much?
- Will the priest see his 'family' again?
- What happened to Padre José?
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The Power & The Glory, Part III (pg. 161-181)
After a long journey, the priest has finally arrived to a place where he is appreciated. It seems to be a town close to the border Guatemala. When he arrives, the priest is shocked to find a place where religion is not persecuted. " 'A church?' The priest ran his hands incredulously over the wall like a blind man trying to recognize a particular house, but he was too tired to feel anything at all. He heard the man with the gun babbling out of sight , 'Such an honour, father. The bell must be rung...' and he sat down suddenly on the rain-drenched grass, and leaning his head against the white wall, he fell asleep, with home behind his shoulder blades. His dream was full of a jangle of cheerful noise (The Power & The Glory, Part II, Chapter 4, pg. 158-159)." It's incredible that after all the priest has been through -almost been caught twice- he finds a place like this town. Maybe Greene wanted to give the reader a bit of tranquility because something really important or catastrophic is going to happen. I believe this is the reason why the reader gets a break from the persecution. Up until know we've noticed that this book is thriller, always making one tense thinking on what's going to happen next. It's been really hard to read this book because I haven't really enjoyed it as much as The Stranger or The Soccer War.
Connecting this part of the book was really simple. Instead of a movie, a book or song, I've decided to make a personal connection. The priest is going through a rough moment in his life. He's being hunted down like an animal and even worse has lost every ones respect because of his reputation as a whiskey priest. "He whispered wearily, 'Drink is only the beginning...' he found he had no lesson he could draw against even that common vice unless it was himself smelling of brandy in the stable. He gave out the penance, quickly, harshly, mechanically. The man would go away, saying, 'A bad priest,' feeling no encouragement, no interest...(The Power & The Glory, Part III, Chapter 1, pg. 172)." During this part of the book we notice how people look at the priest and feel no respect towards him, no love or enthusiasm to see him. One could even say the people feel pity and that is why the ransom hasn't been collected. The personal experience I connected to this part of the book is similar, but not 100% the same. At some point in our lives we feel prosecuted by something or someone, in my case it would be the idea of growing up and having to deal with problems that I haven't faced before. It's no that I don't want to grow up ever, it frightens me to think that in a few years I'm going to have to get a job to survive and most of the times I believe I'll suck so badly that I won't get where I want to and most probably be a complete failure in life. The good thing is I still have time to react and lead myself far away from failure as much as possible. This makes me feel tranquil, but as well gives me the urge to prepare. The psychological feeling of been chased by something or someone is what I share with the priest in this moment.
One of the questions I asked last time was if the priest would have some luck as he had in Concepcion and the answer was yes he does. Later on he finds this small town where practicing religion is not illegal or at least the people in the town allow it and some of them practice religious acts. The story about the churches in the North Mountains is true and the priest sees them, but they are abandoned. Up until now I believe that the priest will never see his 'wife' and daughter again, because he has decided to follow the mestizo into enemy territory.
- Will the priest be caught or killed?
- If the he is caught what will be done with him?
- Is the mestizo a good or bad character?
- Where is Tench? Will we ever see him again?
- What will happen to the priest if he is not caught or killed? Will he leave Mexico?
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Video Clip
The video I chose is Gears of War Trailer. In this clip one can notice that Marcus Fenix is running away from the enemy. The book The Power & The Glory also shows a run away, which would be the priest. Both -the clip and the book- show the fugitive face there enemy head on, with no escape (at the moment). This is why this video was chose, it can be located in the "Links To Videos" window.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
The Power & The Glory, Part II (pg. 59-84)
During this part of the book we learn that the priest has arrived at a new town and there is a secret which is revealed to us. This secret would be that the priest has a daughter and has had a lover in this village, but it seems she doesn't really like him. As soon as he gets to this small town people look at him as if he we're a complete stranger because they don't recognize him without his religious clothes. So he wouldn't get caught he trades them with another man and gets on his way to the village were Maria lives. As said before, Maria has a bitter attitude towards the priest. "She said savagely, 'I know about things. I went to school. I'm not like these others -ignorant. I know you're a bad priest. That time we were together -that wasn't all you've done. I've heard things, I can tell you. Do you think God wants you to stay and die -a whisky priest like you?' He stood patiently in front of her, as he had stood in front of the lieutenant, listening. He hadn't known she was capable of all this thought. She said, 'Suppose you die. You'll be a martyr, won't you? What kind of a martyr do you think you'll be? It's enough to make people mock' (The Power & The Glory, Chapter 1, pg. 79)." One can see that Maria is not very happy to see the priest and after the lieutenant comes into town and takes Miguel she dislikes him even more, because in her mind he is the one who should suffer not the rest of the town's people. Afterwards the priest leaves the town on his mule and heads north because he is told that only trouble awaits him in the south. He rides until what seems to be a river that he must cross, but does not find a boat because the first man tells him that he has no boats and the second at the gaseosa stand (a boy) tells him the boat has been stolen. Up until know the priest has had some luck, lets see if he can find a boat.
I've decided to connect the priest with Jesus, because in my reading I found a similarity between both that amazed me. As one reads along, it seems that the priest is on a journey to show the 'world' Gods love and teachings. We see him on a mule riding around from village to village and at the same time running away from justice who wishes to silence him. He even comes face to face with his enemy. The bible explains how Jesus would travel to different places showing people Gods love, teachings and will, as the priest is trying to do. Christ would also ride on a mule and as well would run away from the authorities so he could carry one with Gods wish of letting the world know him. It might be a superficial connection, but one can identify it by paying close attention to the story. As Jesus, the priest doesn't want anybody getting punished because of their ideals and there is a passage in the text that shows it perfectly. "He had no clear idea now about anything; he only wanted to put as great a distance as possible between him and the village where he had spent the night (The Power & The Glory, Chapter 1, pg. 83)." At first it seemed to be a vague connection, but once you think about it Jesus ran away from 'justice' to make and even greater one, he rode on a mule and showed Gods love for everyone and most importantly gave us life after death, the priest does exactly the same except for life after death, he only express it and does not give his life to give us this gift. It's incredible but these small details give themselves away to the connection I just made. Before starting to read I said to myself "what will my connection be this time, my last connection was impossible to make", but after reading, examining and exploring a little bit I found this to be a great connection.
Up until now we know that the stranger or priest has escaped the authorities and is on his way to hide and not place anybody else at wrisk of being caught and killed because of him. The priest heads north because he knows that south will only cuase him more trouble because they are looking for him and other priests, but he is the top priority at the moment. We still know nothing about Mr. Tench contacting his wife and the priest meeting Coral again.
- Will the priest have as much luck as he had in the village?
- Is it true about the churches in the north mountains?
- What happened to Tench?
- Will Miguel return to the village or be killed?
- Will Maria and the priest ever see each other again? Will he ever see his daughter again?
Rhetoric 2
Demonstrative (Past-Tense): "Complicating the picture, the striking Arctic change was as much a result of ice moving as melting, many say. A new study, led by Son Nghiem at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out of the Arctic basin past Greenland. The thin floes that formed on the resulting open water melted quicker or could be shuffled together by winds and similarly expelled, the authors said."
"For one thing, experts are having trouble finding any records from Russia, Alaska or elsewhere pointing to such a widespread Arctic ice retreat in recent times, adding credence to the idea that humans may have tipped the balance. Many scientists say the last substantial warming in the region, peaking in the 1930s, mainly affected areas near Greenland and Scandinavia."
Forensic (Present-Tense): "While open Arctic waters could be a boon for shipping, fishing and oil exploration, an annual seesawing between ice and no ice could be a particularly harsh jolt to polar bears."
"Many Arctic researchers warned that it was still far too soon to start sending container ships over the top of the world. “Natural variations could turn around and counteract the greenhouse-gas-forced change, perhaps stabilizing the ice for a bit,” said Marika Holland, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo."
Declamative (Future-Tense): "At a recent gathering of sea-ice experts at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Hajo Eicken, a geophysicist, summarized it this way: “Our stock in trade seems to be going away.” Scientists are also unnerved by the summer’s implications for the future, and their ability to predict it."
"The Arctic may have another ace up her sleeve to help the ice grow back," Dr. Eicken said. "But from all we can tell right now, the means for that are quite limited."
Arctic Melt Unnerves the Experts
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: October 2, 2007
The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia.
Arctic Study A Coast Guard work party in August deploying a buoy that helps scientists track the age of sea ice.
Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates.
Now the six-month dark season has returned to the North Pole. In the deepening chill, new ice is already spreading over vast stretches of the Arctic Ocean. Astonished by the summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979.
At a recent gathering of sea-ice experts at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Hajo Eicken, a geophysicist, summarized it this way: “Our stock in trade seems to be going away.”
Scientists are also unnerved by the summer’s implications for the future, and their ability to predict it.
Complicating the picture, the striking Arctic change was as much a result of ice moving as melting, many say. A new study, led by Son Nghiem at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out of the Arctic basin past Greenland. The thin floes that formed on the resulting open water melted quicker or could be shuffled together by winds and similarly expelled, the authors said.
The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations used to envision how the Arctic will respond to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. But that disconnect can cut two ways. Are the models overly conservative? Or are they missing natural influences that can cause wide swings in ice and temperature, thereby dwarfing the slow background warming?
The world is paying more attention than ever.
Russia, Canada and Denmark, prompted in part by years of warming and the ice retreat this year, ratcheted up rhetoric and actions aimed at securing sea routes and seabed resources.
Proponents of cuts in greenhouse gases cited the meltdown as proof that human activities are propelling a slide toward climate calamity.
Arctic experts say things are not that simple. More than a dozen experts said in interviews that the extreme summer ice retreat had revealed at least as much about what remains unknown in the Arctic as what is clear. Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.
For one thing, experts are having trouble finding any records from Russia, Alaska or elsewhere pointing to such a widespread Arctic ice retreat in recent times, adding credence to the idea that humans may have tipped the balance. Many scientists say the last substantial warming in the region, peaking in the 1930s, mainly affected areas near Greenland and Scandinavia.
Some scientists who have long doubted that a human influence could be clearly discerned in the Arctic’s changing climate now agree that the trend is hard to ascribe to anything else.
“We used to argue that a lot of the variability up to the late 1990s was induced by changes in the winds, natural changes not obviously related to global warming,” said John Michael Wallace, a scientist at the University of Washington. “But changes in the last few years make you have to question that. I’m much more open to the idea that we might have passed a point where it’s becoming essentially irreversible.”
Experts say the ice retreat is likely to be even bigger next summer because this winter’s freeze is starting from such a huge ice deficit. At least one researcher, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., projects a blue Arctic Ocean in summers by 2013.
In essence, Arctic waters may be behaving more like those around Antarctica, where a broad fringe of sea ice builds each austral winter and nearly disappears in the summer. (Reflecting the different geography and dynamics at the two poles, there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades.)
While open Arctic waters could be a boon for shipping, fishing and oil exploration, an annual seesawing between ice and no ice could be a particularly harsh jolt to polar bears.
Many Arctic researchers warned that it was still far too soon to start sending container ships over the top of the world. “Natural variations could turn around and counteract the greenhouse-gas-forced change, perhaps stabilizing the ice for a bit,” said Marika Holland, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
But, she added, that will not last. “Eventually the natural variations would again reinforce the human-driven change, perhaps leading to even more rapid retreat,” Dr. Holland said. “So I wouldn’t sign any shipping contracts for the next 5 to 10 years, but maybe the next 20 to 30.”
While experts debate details, many agree that the vanishing act of the sea ice this year was probably caused by superimposed forces including heat-trapping clouds and water vapor in the air, as well as the ocean-heating influence of unusually sunny skies in June and July. Other important factors were warm winds flowing from Siberia around a high-pressure system parked over the ocean. The winds not only would have melted thin ice but also pushed floes offshore where currents and winds could push them out of the Arctic Ocean.
But another factor was probably involved, one with roots going back to about 1989. At that time, a periodic flip in winds and pressure patterns over the Arctic Ocean, called the Arctic Oscillation, settled into a phase that tended to stop ice from drifting in a gyre for years, so it could thicken, and instead carried it out to the North Atlantic.
The new NASA study of expelled old ice builds on previous measurements showing that the proportion of thick, durable floes that were at least 10 years old dropped to 2 percent this spring from 80 percent in the spring of 1987, said Ignatius G. Rigor, an ice expert at the University of Washington and an author of the new NASA-led study.
Without the thick ice, which can endure months of nonstop summer sunshine, more dark open water and thin ice absorbed solar energy, adding to melting and delaying the winter freeze.
The thinner fresh-formed ice was also more vulnerable to melting from heat held near the ocean surface by clouds and water vapor. This may be where the rising influence of humans on the global climate system could be exerting the biggest regional influence, said Jennifer A. Francis of Rutgers University.
Other Arctic experts, including Dr. Maslowski in Monterey and Igor V. Polyakov at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, also see a role in rising flows of warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, and in deep currents running north from the Atlantic Ocean near Scandinavia.
A host of Arctic scientists say it is too soon to know if the global greenhouse effect has already tipped the system to a condition in which sea ice in summers will be routinely limited to a few clotted passageways in northern Canada.
But at the university in Fairbanks — where signs of northern warming include sinkholes from thawing permafrost around its Arctic research center — Dr. Eicken and other experts are having a hard time conceiving a situation that could reverse the trends.
“The Arctic may have another ace up her sleeve to help the ice grow back,” Dr. Eicken said. “But from all we can tell right now, the means for that are quite limited.”
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Published: October 2, 2007
The Arctic ice cap shrank so much this summer that waves briefly lapped along two long-imagined Arctic shipping routes, the Northwest Passage over Canada and the Northern Sea Route over Russia.
Arctic Study A Coast Guard work party in August deploying a buoy that helps scientists track the age of sea ice.
Over all, the floating ice dwindled to an extent unparalleled in a century or more, by several estimates.
Now the six-month dark season has returned to the North Pole. In the deepening chill, new ice is already spreading over vast stretches of the Arctic Ocean. Astonished by the summer’s changes, scientists are studying the forces that exposed one million square miles of open water — six Californias — beyond the average since satellites started measurements in 1979.
At a recent gathering of sea-ice experts at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, Hajo Eicken, a geophysicist, summarized it this way: “Our stock in trade seems to be going away.”
Scientists are also unnerved by the summer’s implications for the future, and their ability to predict it.
Complicating the picture, the striking Arctic change was as much a result of ice moving as melting, many say. A new study, led by Son Nghiem at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and appearing this week in Geophysical Research Letters, used satellites and buoys to show that winds since 2000 had pushed huge amounts of thick old ice out of the Arctic basin past Greenland. The thin floes that formed on the resulting open water melted quicker or could be shuffled together by winds and similarly expelled, the authors said.
The pace of change has far exceeded what had been estimated by almost all the simulations used to envision how the Arctic will respond to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases linked to global warming. But that disconnect can cut two ways. Are the models overly conservative? Or are they missing natural influences that can cause wide swings in ice and temperature, thereby dwarfing the slow background warming?
The world is paying more attention than ever.
Russia, Canada and Denmark, prompted in part by years of warming and the ice retreat this year, ratcheted up rhetoric and actions aimed at securing sea routes and seabed resources.
Proponents of cuts in greenhouse gases cited the meltdown as proof that human activities are propelling a slide toward climate calamity.
Arctic experts say things are not that simple. More than a dozen experts said in interviews that the extreme summer ice retreat had revealed at least as much about what remains unknown in the Arctic as what is clear. Still, many of those scientists said they were becoming convinced that the system is heading toward a new, more watery state, and that human-caused global warming is playing a significant role.
For one thing, experts are having trouble finding any records from Russia, Alaska or elsewhere pointing to such a widespread Arctic ice retreat in recent times, adding credence to the idea that humans may have tipped the balance. Many scientists say the last substantial warming in the region, peaking in the 1930s, mainly affected areas near Greenland and Scandinavia.
Some scientists who have long doubted that a human influence could be clearly discerned in the Arctic’s changing climate now agree that the trend is hard to ascribe to anything else.
“We used to argue that a lot of the variability up to the late 1990s was induced by changes in the winds, natural changes not obviously related to global warming,” said John Michael Wallace, a scientist at the University of Washington. “But changes in the last few years make you have to question that. I’m much more open to the idea that we might have passed a point where it’s becoming essentially irreversible.”
Experts say the ice retreat is likely to be even bigger next summer because this winter’s freeze is starting from such a huge ice deficit. At least one researcher, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif., projects a blue Arctic Ocean in summers by 2013.
In essence, Arctic waters may be behaving more like those around Antarctica, where a broad fringe of sea ice builds each austral winter and nearly disappears in the summer. (Reflecting the different geography and dynamics at the two poles, there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades.)
While open Arctic waters could be a boon for shipping, fishing and oil exploration, an annual seesawing between ice and no ice could be a particularly harsh jolt to polar bears.
Many Arctic researchers warned that it was still far too soon to start sending container ships over the top of the world. “Natural variations could turn around and counteract the greenhouse-gas-forced change, perhaps stabilizing the ice for a bit,” said Marika Holland, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.
But, she added, that will not last. “Eventually the natural variations would again reinforce the human-driven change, perhaps leading to even more rapid retreat,” Dr. Holland said. “So I wouldn’t sign any shipping contracts for the next 5 to 10 years, but maybe the next 20 to 30.”
While experts debate details, many agree that the vanishing act of the sea ice this year was probably caused by superimposed forces including heat-trapping clouds and water vapor in the air, as well as the ocean-heating influence of unusually sunny skies in June and July. Other important factors were warm winds flowing from Siberia around a high-pressure system parked over the ocean. The winds not only would have melted thin ice but also pushed floes offshore where currents and winds could push them out of the Arctic Ocean.
But another factor was probably involved, one with roots going back to about 1989. At that time, a periodic flip in winds and pressure patterns over the Arctic Ocean, called the Arctic Oscillation, settled into a phase that tended to stop ice from drifting in a gyre for years, so it could thicken, and instead carried it out to the North Atlantic.
The new NASA study of expelled old ice builds on previous measurements showing that the proportion of thick, durable floes that were at least 10 years old dropped to 2 percent this spring from 80 percent in the spring of 1987, said Ignatius G. Rigor, an ice expert at the University of Washington and an author of the new NASA-led study.
Without the thick ice, which can endure months of nonstop summer sunshine, more dark open water and thin ice absorbed solar energy, adding to melting and delaying the winter freeze.
The thinner fresh-formed ice was also more vulnerable to melting from heat held near the ocean surface by clouds and water vapor. This may be where the rising influence of humans on the global climate system could be exerting the biggest regional influence, said Jennifer A. Francis of Rutgers University.
Other Arctic experts, including Dr. Maslowski in Monterey and Igor V. Polyakov at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, also see a role in rising flows of warm water entering the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait between Alaska and Russia, and in deep currents running north from the Atlantic Ocean near Scandinavia.
A host of Arctic scientists say it is too soon to know if the global greenhouse effect has already tipped the system to a condition in which sea ice in summers will be routinely limited to a few clotted passageways in northern Canada.
But at the university in Fairbanks — where signs of northern warming include sinkholes from thawing permafrost around its Arctic research center — Dr. Eicken and other experts are having a hard time conceiving a situation that could reverse the trends.
“The Arctic may have another ace up her sleeve to help the ice grow back,” Dr. Eicken said. “But from all we can tell right now, the means for that are quite limited.”